日本央行“历史性加息”为何难见效（经济透视）

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, aiming to address persistent inflation and stabilize the weak yen [1][2] - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, marking 51 consecutive months of increase, while real wages continue to decline due to inflation [2][3] - The government has intervened in the foreign exchange market multiple times since 2022, utilizing over 24.5 trillion yen to combat inflationary pressures [2] Group 2 - Despite the interest rate hike, the expected effects have not materialized, as the real interest rate remains negative when considering the CPI increase [3] - Japan's fiscal and monetary policies are contradictory, with a supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen approved just before the rate hike, which may exacerbate inflation [3][4] - Structural issues in the Japanese economy include a trade deficit for four consecutive years, with a projected deficit of 5.2 trillion yen for FY2024, and a growing digital trade deficit due to technological disadvantages [3][4] Group 3 - The interest rate increase may lead to higher risks for small and medium-sized enterprises due to rising financing costs and wage pressures, potentially triggering a wave of bankruptcies [4] - The burden on households with mortgage loans will increase, with personal housing loan balances expected to reach 227 trillion yen by the end of 2024 [4] - Japan's government debt is projected to exceed 1,450 trillion yen by the end of this year, with interest payments for FY2024 reaching 7.9 trillion yen, indicating a severe fiscal sustainability crisis [4]