多空因素并存 沪胶区间震荡为主

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of inventory consumption, with supply pressures easing due to the seasonal cessation of rubber tapping in major production areas like Yunnan and Hainan [1][2] - As of December 2025, the two main production areas for natural rubber in China, Yunnan and Hainan, have entered the cessation phase, leading to a significant reduction in raw material output and a reliance on inventory for market circulation [1] - The domestic automotive market shows positive trends, with production and sales of vehicles in November 2025 reaching 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.1% and 3.2% [2] Group 2 - The tire market in China is characterized by stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, and internal-external coordination, with the production of rubber tire outer casings showing a slight year-on-year decline of 2.6% in November 2025 [3] - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao area reached 515,200 tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1,630 tons, indicating a continuous rise in inventory for eight consecutive weeks [3] - The heavy truck market, a key indicator of natural rubber demand, has shown a strong recovery, with November 2025 sales reaching approximately 100,000 units, a 46% increase compared to the same month last year [2]