黄金、白银价格持续攀升并刷新历史纪录，后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metal prices, including gold and silver, is primarily driven by a loose monetary environment and liquidity, following signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and quantitative easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and restart quantitative easing by purchasing $40 billion in short-term government bonds has significantly influenced market expectations [1]. - Gold prices are projected to rise from $2,650 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to over $4,400 per ounce by December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 68% [1]. - The current market shows a unique characteristic where gold prices are rising despite high real interest rates, which traditionally have an inverse relationship with gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for gold is being driven by a combination of official reserves, institutional investments, and industrial applications, creating a balanced demand structure [3]. - Central banks are maintaining high levels of gold purchases, while individual investors are increasingly buying physical gold due to rising prices [2][3]. - The supply of gold is constrained, with known economic reserves estimated at only 60,000 to 70,000 tons, which can only sustain current extraction rates until 2032 [3]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The long-term support for precious metal prices is attributed to the ongoing central bank gold buying spree and structural supply shortages, particularly in silver [5][6]. - The global economic landscape, characterized by persistent inflation and currency devaluation, enhances the appeal of precious metals as a store of value [4][5]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could rise from $4,400 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce over the next 1-2 years, representing a cumulative upside of 13.6% [6]. Group 4: Future Variables - Key variables that could disrupt the upward trend in precious metal prices include changes in overseas financial conditions, advancements in AI technology applications, and the recovery of the Chinese economy [7].