背离历史规律！黄金还能涨多久？2026年全球黄金价格走势展望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future trajectory of gold prices, questioning whether they will continue to rise or face a significant directional test by 2026, following a historic surge in prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing assets over the past two years, with prices consistently reaching historical highs from 2024 to 2025, significantly outperforming most major asset classes [1]. - In the second half of 2025, gold prices briefly surpassed $4,200 per ounce before experiencing a phase of correction and fluctuating within a high range [1]. Group 2: Inflation Hedge Perspective - Traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, the relationship between gold prices and inflation is more complex than commonly perceived, with academic studies indicating that this correlation is not stable [2][3]. - Research suggests that gold's hedging effect is more pronounced during extreme inflation or periods of currency credit deterioration [3]. Group 3: Long-term Price Trends - Since the 2010s, gold prices have remained above historical average levels, and the deviation from inflation indicators has approached historical extremes since 2022, indicating a potential reduction in the marginal space for significant price increases [5]. - The likelihood of price adjustments or fluctuations is increasing over time as gold's long-term purchasing power and historical valuation perspectives are considered [5]. Group 4: Safe-Haven Asset Dynamics - Gold's status as a safe-haven asset has been challenged, as it has shown weak or even negative correlation with U.S. equities historically, but this trend has weakened since late 2022, with both asset classes rising in tandem [6]. - Investors often use gold to hedge against macroeconomic and political uncertainties, but historical patterns suggest that simultaneous rises in risk and safe-haven assets are typically temporary [9]. Group 5: Interest Rates and Economic Policy Uncertainty - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has become unstable, with recent years showing gold maintaining strength even amid high long-term U.S. Treasury yields [11]. - Economic policy uncertainty has been found to have a greater explanatory power for gold prices than geopolitical events, with significant fluctuations in the global economic policy uncertainty index correlating with gold price movements [13]. Group 6: Dollar Index Influence - The U.S. dollar index, as the basis for gold pricing, plays a crucial role, with a weakening dollar often amplifying gold price increases [15]. - A 10% to 20% phase adjustment in gold prices is not unlikely in the first half of 2026, especially if the U.S. political cycle does not enter a high-risk phase; however, this does not indicate a long-term bear market for gold [15].