世界经济的韧性与底气（2025年终特别报道）

Core Insights - The global economy in 2025 demonstrated impressive resilience amidst multiple shocks, characterized by enhanced risk prevention capabilities and self-correcting abilities [14][15][16] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to be the main contributors to global growth in 2025, with a projected global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026 [14][17] - China is positioned as a "stabilizing anchor" for the global economy, showcasing strong resilience and vitality despite external challenges [11][21] Economic Performance - The OECD forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026, driven by expansionary macro policies and positive expectations for new technologies [14] - The IMF noted a resilient start to 2025, but indicated signs of a gradual slowdown as supportive factors diminish [14][15] - The global economy is expected to maintain a growth rate between 3.1% and 3.2% in 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties [17] Challenges and Opportunities - The world economy is anticipated to face challenges in 2026, including uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and the impact of technological advancements on employment and productivity [20][18] - The transition to a more stable economic environment in 2026 will rely on technological progress and free trade [17][20] - The rise of artificial intelligence presents both opportunities and risks, with its potential to drive economic growth while also posing challenges to labor markets [19][18] China's Role - China is expected to play a crucial role in global economic stability, with its economic policies reflecting a commitment to high-level openness and reform [21][23] - The Chinese economy is projected to grow by around 5% in 2025, providing significant support to the global economy [22][23] - China's focus on high-tech manufacturing, green development, and artificial intelligence is set to dominate its export landscape, contributing to global supply chains [24][23]