全球价值链经历再全球化重塑

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report indicates a transformation in global value chains towards "re-globalization," driven by technological advancements, green transitions, and geopolitical changes [1][2] Group 1: Trade Structure and Dynamics - Global value chain trade remains significant, accounting for approximately 46% of global trade, despite a decrease from the 48% peak in 2022 [2] - Future trade growth is expected to be characterized by structural adjustments, technological upgrades, and deepened regional cooperation rather than rapid expansion [2] - The importance of services and digital trade is rising, with digitalization reshaping value creation and increasing the share of digitally deliverable services in global value chains [2] Group 2: Policy and Governance Influences - Trade is increasingly influenced by policy rather than solely cost factors, with industrial policies, green regulations, and security reviews significantly affecting trade flows [2] - The report highlights over 180 "targeted trade agreements" focusing on digital trade, critical minerals, and green sectors, indicating a shift from comprehensive agreements to issue-oriented cooperation [2] Group 3: Environmental and Technological Shifts - Carbon emissions responsibilities are now integrated into value chain decisions, with green policies directly impacting corporate site selection and trade structures [3] - The green industry is undergoing restructuring, with a focus on electric vehicles and critical minerals, leading to a reorganization towards "green, circular, and traceable" value chains [3] - Digital technology is lowering barriers for participation in global value chains, enabling small and medium enterprises to engage more deeply in cross-border value chains [3]