2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-12-24 23:10Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by multiple factors, including supply disruptions in major producing countries and increased demand from emerging sectors, leading to significant pressure on downstream industries [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Since December 2025, tin prices have increased significantly, with LME tin rising by 11.5% and SHFE tin by over 13%, translating to an increase of more than 40,000 yuan per ton in just half a month [2]. - LME three-month tin futures and SHFE main contracts have reached record highs, surpassing $43,900 per ton and 348,000 yuan per ton, respectively [3][4]. - The price increase has been more pronounced in tin compared to other industrial metals, with the best-performing copper only rising by less than 7% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar is stabilizing, with domestic tin smelting capacity fully released, resulting in a production of 189,000 tons from January to November, a 6.2% year-on-year increase [4]. - Despite growth in demand from sectors like photovoltaics and automotive electronics, traditional sectors show stable demand, with global tin consumption expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, lagging behind production growth [4]. - The global tin market is currently experiencing a supply surplus of approximately 10,000 tons, attributed to a slowdown in overseas demand [4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The rapid price increase has created significant pressure on downstream industries, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises in sectors like solder, tinplate, and chemicals, leading to difficulties in fulfilling long-term contracts and maintaining product quality [2][8]. - The electronic manufacturing sector, a major consumer of tin-based solder, faces acute cost pressures due to soaring tin prices, impacting profit margins in PCB manufacturing and semiconductor packaging [8]. - The Tin Industry Association has called for a rational and cautious approach from all market participants to avoid speculative behavior and to guide prices back to a reasonable range [8].