人民币盘中突破7.01 2026年有望延续温和升值

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) is attributed to a weaker US dollar, a decline in the dollar index by nearly 10%, and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign capital inflows. The RMB is expected to maintain a strong position against the USD in the short term and is projected to appreciate moderately by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to RMB Strength - The RMB has shown a trend of moderate appreciation throughout the year, with the offshore RMB starting at 7.27 against the USD and reaching a low of 7.42879 in April before rebounding as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts became clearer [2]. - As of December 24, the offshore RMB broke through 7.01, reaching a low of 7.00621, while the dollar index hovered around 97.8, indicating a continued decline in the dollar's value [2][3]. - Increased corporate demand for currency settlement near year-end has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, with historical data showing that the settlement surplus typically peaks before the Spring Festival [3]. Group 2: Economic and Market Implications - The strong performance of the Chinese stock market has attracted cross-border capital inflows, providing additional support for the RMB's appreciation [3]. - The resilience of the domestic economy has been recognized by international financial institutions, leading to upward revisions in growth forecasts for China, which has increased foreign interest in the market [3]. - The RMB's appreciation is expected to positively impact the capital markets, potentially boosting stock valuations, as historical studies indicate that a 0.1% increase in the exchange rate can enhance stock valuations by 3% to 5% [6].