PTA存在去库预期

Group 1: Market Overview - PTA futures have shown strong performance, with the main contract rising to around 5000 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of an optimized supply-demand structure in the polyester industry chain for 2026 [1] - The market sentiment is turning bullish towards the end of the year due to the anticipated supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - In 2026, there will be a production vacuum for PTA with no new capacity additions, allowing for potential recovery in processing fees [1] - The PX market is expected to face tight supply in the first half of next year due to no new capacity and seasonal maintenance in Q2, which may strengthen processing fees for both PX and PTA [1] - As of the end of 2025, the total capacity of mainstream PTA facilities is approximately 93.25 million tons, with an average capacity utilization rate of about 78%, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Domestic textile and apparel exports have been affected by US-China trade tensions, with a 1.6% year-on-year decline in export value from January to October this year [2] - Textile yarn exports have seen a slight increase of 0.9%, while clothing and accessories exports have decreased by 3.8%, indicating a widening decline [2] - Domestic demand for textiles and apparel is expected to grow steadily, with conservative operational attitudes in the weaving sector and low inventory levels [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The PTA market is projected to maintain a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, with demand growth expected to outpace supply growth, leading to continued inventory depletion [2] - It is anticipated that the processing fees for PTA will rebound in 2026, ranging between 100 to 400 yuan/ton, while the main PTA futures contract price is expected to operate between 4400 to 6000 yuan/ton, with opportunities to buy on dips around 4500 yuan/ton in the first half of the year [2]