多晶硅期价回落，背后的交易逻辑是……

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to a cooling market sentiment following strong expectations, leading to a return to fundamental trading dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices have experienced a high-level correction, with the main PS2605 contract price approaching 58,000 yuan/ton, closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [1]. - Analysts indicate that the price drop reflects ongoing profit distribution struggles between upstream and downstream sectors, with downstream segments facing increasing non-silicon cost pressures due to rising prices of auxiliary materials like silver paste [1]. - Current cash profit margins for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules are approximately 27.21%, -11.67%, -19.81%, and 1.34% respectively, indicating significant pressure on downstream profitability [1]. Group 2: Production and Capacity Outlook - It is projected that silicon wafer production will decrease by about 21.67% to 44.71 GW by December 2025, with further reductions expected in January 2026 [2]. - The domestic polysilicon capacity is anticipated to be reduced to approximately 1.89 million tons by 2026, as the industry focuses on eliminating outdated production capacity [2]. - Self-discipline in production and sales within the polysilicon sector is expected to continue into the next year, with an estimated annual production of around 1.16 million tons in 2026, aligning with market demand [2]. Group 3: Pricing Trends and Challenges - The current market is characterized by a "cost-price-inventory" struggle, with upstream polysilicon producers raising spot prices to 65,000 yuan/ton, while downstream companies resist these high prices [3]. - Despite a reduction in inventory in the silicon wafer segment, the actual transaction prices remain limited due to the reluctance of downstream battery cell manufacturers to accept rising costs [3][4]. - The increase in prices for silicon wafers and battery cells has been noted, with silicon wafer prices rising from 1.48 yuan/piece to a range of 1.05 to 1.53 yuan/piece, and battery cell prices increasing from 0.283 yuan/watt to 0.27 to 0.31 yuan/watt [4]. Group 4: Future Market Expectations - The market is expected to maintain a "upstream price increase, downstream observation" dynamic in the short term, with the acceptance of higher component prices by downstream entities being crucial for the sustainability of upstream price increases [5][6]. - The ability of the polysilicon market to rebound will depend on whether downstream prices can rise to around 0.8 yuan/watt, which would support a gradual increase in polysilicon spot prices [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the core of price increases in polysilicon hinges on effective price transmission mechanisms throughout the supply chain, necessitating a consensus on "volume for price" across the entire industry [6].