加息阴云笼罩+供给压力！日本两年期国债标售恐遇冷

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a significant increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan to curb inflation and support the yen, with a two-year government bond auction scheduled soon after the central bank raised policy rates to a 30-year high [1][3] - The two-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 1996, reflecting heightened sensitivity to monetary policy expectations, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has also surged to its highest since 2004 [1] - Concerns about the Bank of Japan lagging behind in policy adjustments and rising inflation expectations have created unease in the market regarding the upcoming bond auction, which is seen as a key indicator of market sentiment towards the central bank's stance [3] Group 2 - The upcoming auction is expected to be the first issuance of two-year bonds with yields exceeding 1%, although there are doubts about its performance following the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan [3] - Investors are worried about the government's bond issuance plan related to the fiscal year 2026 budget, which is anticipated to exceed the initial plan for the current fiscal year [3] - The auction results will be closely monitored for the bid-to-cover ratio and the 'tail' difference, which indicates demand and pricing dynamics in the bond market [4]