从“攻坚化解”到“系统治理”，2025是地方债化债大年

Core Viewpoint - China's local debt resolution efforts have deepened this year, with significant progress in reducing hidden debt and lowering financing costs, marking a shift from aggressive measures to systematic governance in debt management [3][4]. Group 1: Debt Reduction Progress - Since the introduction of a comprehensive debt resolution plan in July 2023, local debt resolution has advanced significantly, with hidden debt expected to decrease to approximately 6.5 to 7 trillion yuan by the end of this year [4]. - After the completion of a 2 trillion yuan debt replacement quota next year, the hidden debt that local governments need to resolve independently is projected to drop to around 4.5 trillion yuan, significantly alleviating pressure and maintaining overall risk at manageable levels [4]. - As of June 2023, the debt structure of financing platforms has improved, with bank loans accounting for 56.59% of interest-bearing liabilities, bonds at 24.19%, and non-standard financing at 19.22%, reflecting a shift in financing sources [4]. Group 2: Systematic Governance and Policy Shifts - The debt resolution strategy has transitioned to a systematic governance approach, characterized by fiscal debt resolution, financial collaboration, and institutional regulatory frameworks [4][5]. - The Ministry of Finance's establishment of a debt management department signifies the implementation of long-term mechanisms for monitoring, borrowing, and accountability in debt management [5]. - The focus of debt resolution policies has shifted from "developing through debt resolution" to "resolving debt through development," indicating a more integrated approach to managing local government debt [3][5]. Group 3: Future Directions and Challenges - In 2026, the debt resolution strategy is expected to continue emphasizing development while addressing operational debt and overdue payments, with a focus on reducing high-cost non-standard debts [8][9]. - There may be supplementary policies to support the transition of financing platforms, which are required to exit by June 2027, as achieving sufficient self-sustainability within this timeframe is challenging [9]. - The government is likely to prioritize clearing overdue payments to enterprises, with 2026 anticipated to be a critical year for addressing these debts, although some regions may struggle to meet their obligations without additional bond issuance [10].