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Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to a cooling market sentiment following strong expectations, leading to a return to fundamental trading dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices have shown a high-level correction, with the main PS2605 contract price approaching 58,000 yuan/ton, closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [1] - Analysts indicate that the price drop is a result of profit distribution conflicts along the supply chain, with upstream polysilicon producers still profitable while downstream segments face pressure from rising non-silicon costs [1] - Current cash profit margins across the polysilicon supply chain are approximately 27.21% for polysilicon, -11.67% for silicon wafers, -19.81% for battery cells, and 1.34% for modules [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity Outlook - It is projected that silicon wafer production will decrease by about 21.67% to 44.71 GW by December 2025, with further reductions expected in January 2026 [2] - The domestic polysilicon capacity is anticipated to be reduced to approximately 1.89 million tons by 2026, with self-regulated production and sales expected to continue [2] - The exchange has implemented measures to stabilize the market, including increasing the minimum opening positions and expanding delivery warehouses, which has helped to restore rational trading [2] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Pressures - The current market is characterized by a "cost-price-inventory" battle, with upstream polysilicon producers raising prices to 65,000 yuan/ton, while downstream companies resist these high prices [3] - Despite a reduction in inventory at the silicon wafer level, the increase in upstream prices has pressured downstream battery cell producers, leading to a rise in mainstream pricing to 0.32 yuan/watt [3] - The increase in prices for silicon wafers and battery cells has not yet translated into significant sales, indicating a potential "price without market" scenario [4] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - The short-term outlook suggests a continued "upstream price increase, downstream observation" market structure, with the acceptance of high-priced components by end-users being limited [5] - If component prices do not rise, the logic of upstream price increases may not sustain, leading to potential price corrections due to high inventory levels [5] - The ability of the entire supply chain to achieve a consensus on "volume for price" through greater production cuts is crucial for sustaining price increases [6]