双焦冬储预期仍存但力度有限

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal and coke prices have shown a "V" shaped trend since December, with significant downward pressure initially, followed by a rebound due to positive market factors, although the supply-demand dynamics remain challenging [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures faced increased downward pressure after the main contract switched to 2605 at the beginning of December [1] - The market is experiencing a "double weakness" in supply and demand for coke, with slight declines in production from steel mills and independent coking enterprises [2] - Environmental alerts in northern regions have led to production restrictions, with coking enterprises reducing output by 20% to 35% [2] Group 2: Production and Utilization Rates - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for independent coking enterprises was 72.05%, down 1.11 percentage points, with daily production of metallurgical coke at 630,000 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons [2] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises dropped to 16 yuan per ton of coke, down 28 yuan from previous levels [2] - The operating rate of sample coal mines was 86.62%, with a daily output of 757,500 tons, slightly down by 7,500 tons [3] Group 3: Inventory and Demand - Coking coal inventory at independent coking enterprises decreased by 10,100 tons to 10,362,900 tons, while steel mills increased their coking coal inventory by 103,400 tons to 8,049,900 tons [3] - Domestic coke consumption was 1,019,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,900 tons [2] - The overall inventory of coking coal at ports decreased by 213,300 tons to 2,861,700 tons [3] Group 4: Industry Position and Future Outlook - The coke industry is in a relatively weak position within the black industrial chain, with limited bargaining power [4] - There are expectations for winter storage policies from some steel mills, but the anticipated impact is expected to be limited [4]