美联储1月议息预测：维持不变的概率88%

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant likelihood of rate cuts in the future [1] Interest Rate Predictions - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate is 88% [1] - There is a 12% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.6% probability of a cut exceeding 50 basis points [1] - The likelihood of an increase of 25 basis points is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Polymarket forecasts a 23% probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points by 2026 [1] - There is a 22% probability for a total cut of 75 basis points, a 16% probability for 100 basis points, and an 11% probability for 125 basis points [1]