现货黄金突破4500美元，避险共识下机构现分歧：到顶了还是仍看涨？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching over $4,500 per ounce, is primarily driven by the ongoing restructuring of global monetary credit and rising U.S. debt risks, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets and a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 24, spot gold prices hit a record high of $4,511.504 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 71% [2]. - The COMEX gold price also reached $4,549.3 per ounce, indicating strong market performance [2]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang reporting increases of 8 to 44 yuan per gram compared to previous days [2]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The primary support for gold prices stems from the persistent rise in U.S. debt risks and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, which diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated assets [3][4]. - Experts suggest that the ongoing U.S. interest rate cuts will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its attractiveness compared to cash and bonds, especially in a high inflation environment [3][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite some investors exiting the gold market, many institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term value, citing strong demand from central banks in countries like China and India [4][5]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic uncertainties continue to bolster gold's role as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of further price increases [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing U.S. rate cuts and macroeconomic shifts will support gold's long-term investment appeal, despite short-term trading risks [6].