银河证券美国第三季度GDP点评：增长源自库存扰动减弱与净出口改善

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that while the third quarter GDP exceeded previous values and market expectations, the improvement in consumption and investment remains limited, with growth primarily driven by inventory adjustments and net export improvements, rather than a genuine enhancement in economic momentum [1] Consumption - Consumption support for growth has strengthened, but the growth rate remains at the mid-level seen since the second half of 2024, without a trend increase. Specifically, personal consumption in Q3 grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% (previous value 2.5%), contributing 2.39 percentage points to GDP, up from 1.68 percentage points in Q2 [2] - In terms of structure, goods consumption contributed 0.66 percentage points to GDP, with durable goods contributing only 0.12 percentage points, lower than Q2's 0.17 and significantly weaker than Q4 2024's 0.92. The consumption of motor vehicles and parts shifted from a positive contribution of 0.23 in Q2 to a negative contribution of -0.17, indicating a more temporary rebound [2] - Non-durable goods consumption contributed 0.54 percentage points, becoming the main support on the goods side. Service consumption continued to underpin growth, with a contribution of 1.74 percentage points to GDP in Q3, driven by medical services contributing 0.76 percentage points, higher than the previous two quarters [2] Investment - Investment in Q3 did not improve alongside GDP, remaining in a weak range. Private investment contributed -0.02 percentage points to GDP, an improvement from -2.66 in Q2, but fixed asset investment contributed only 0.19 percentage points, down from 0.77 in Q2 [3] - Non-residential fixed asset investment contributed 0.40 percentage points to GDP, lower than Q2's 0.98 and Q1's 1.24. Equipment investment contributed 0.29 percentage points, showing a decline as previous AI-related hardware investments stabilized [3] - Intellectual property investment contributed 0.30 percentage points, significantly down from 0.78 in Q2. Software-related investment dropped from 0.58 to 0.07, while R&D investment remained around 0.23, indicating a cautious approach to short-cycle investments [3] Inventory and Net Exports - Inventory and net exports were the main sources of GDP rebound in Q3, reflecting more of a phase fluctuation. Inventory's negative contribution to GDP decreased from 3.44 percentage points in Q2 to 0.22 percentage points in Q3, indicating ongoing destocking [4] - Net exports contributed 1.59 percentage points to GDP, with exports contributing 0.92 percentage points and a decline in imports contributing 0.67 percentage points. The slowdown in goods imports significantly supported GDP, aligning with the characteristics of weakened domestic demand [4] Market Expectations - The market has reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 due to the unexpected economic growth. Data from CME shows a convergence in the probability of rate cuts by January 2026 [4] - Following the data release, a prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, Hassett, noted that the growth foundation still relies on price declines, income growth, and improved sentiment, suggesting that if GDP growth remains around 4%, new job additions could return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000 per month [4]