鸣鸣很忙：从“万店”很忙到“万品”很忙，是馅饼还是陷阱？

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth potential and investment value of the snack brand "Mingming Hen Mang," which is likened to a "Pinduoduo" in the snack industry, emphasizing its highly digitalized supply chain as a key driver of its business model [2][4]. Group 1: Growth Potential - The growth of "Mingming Hen Mang" relies on two dimensions: store expansion and single-store GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) [2]. - The competitive landscape of the snack industry has evolved from a fragmented market (2017-2021) to a duopoly model post-2021, with significant capital inflow leading to aggressive expansion and price wars [4][5]. - The average net profit margin in the industry has dropped from 2% to below 1% due to intense price competition, prompting consolidation among smaller brands [5][9]. - The market concentration (CR2) has surged from under 10% in 2021 to over 65% by 2024, indicating a rapid shift towards a few dominant players [5][9]. Group 2: Store Expansion and Market Dynamics - "Mingming Hen Mang" has established a strong market presence in Central China, with plans to expand into Southwest and South China, while its competitor, Wancheng Group, focuses on East and North China [9]. - The saturation of stores in Hunan province has led to a significant increase in competition, with many brands experiencing a 30%-40% drop in customer traffic due to overlapping locations [10]. - Future store density projections suggest that the total number of snack stores could reach between 60,000 to 70,000 across various regions, with "Mingming Hen Mang" potentially capturing 50% of the market share [11][12]. Group 3: Transition to Discount Supermarkets - In response to declining same-store revenue, "Mingming Hen Mang" is transitioning to a dual-brand strategy, with "Zhao Yiming Snacks" evolving into a discount supermarket model [13][15]. - The transition aims to leverage existing customer traffic and expand product categories, although it presents challenges in supply chain integration and management complexity [15][20]. - The initial results of the transition show a 20%-25% increase in GMV, but the payback period for new stores has extended from over two years to more than three years due to increased operational costs [19][20]. Group 4: Self-Brand Development - The company aims to enhance its self-brand product offerings, which could lead to improved profitability by reducing reliance on third-party brands and addressing consumer preferences more effectively [21][24]. - By 2025, "Mingming Hen Mang" plans to launch various self-branded products targeting different consumer segments, with initial offerings already showing high repurchase rates [24][25]. Group 5: Investment Value - The company is expected to slow its store opening pace starting in 2026, focusing on optimizing existing stores and achieving profitability in the discount supermarket model [26][32]. - Revenue projections indicate a CAGR of 10.7% from 2025 to 2029, with profit expected to grow from 1.65 billion to 4.04 billion yuan during the same period [27][32]. - The company's valuation is anticipated to increase significantly if the transition to a full discount supermarket model proves successful, although current estimates remain conservative due to the inherent challenges of such a transition [35][36].