银河证券：2026年1月降息概率收敛，仍有约3次降息空间

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the probability of interest rate cuts in January 2026 has converged due to better-than-expected growth, with the potential for about three rate cuts remaining that year [1] - CME data shows a shift in the outlook for interest rate cuts, reflecting a change in economic conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, Hassett, emphasized that the growth foundation is supported by declining prices, rising incomes, and improved sentiment, suggesting that if GDP growth remains around 4%, new job additions could return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000 per month [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the third-quarter growth primarily reflects the easing of inventory and trade disruptions, which is insufficient to alter the trend of weakening employment [1] - With employment becoming a focal point for policy considerations and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman progressing, there remains a possibility for approximately three interest rate cuts in 2026 [1]