Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Feng Huang Wang·2025-12-25 01:24Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen suggests that the U.S. economy may avoid large-scale layoffs by 2026, provided that companies continue to raise prices based on previous increases in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The latest GDP data indicates that companies have made significant strides in recovering tariff costs by raising output prices, which helps restore profitability and mitigate recession risks [1] - A survey by Morgan Stanley reveals that U.S. companies plan to further increase prices in 2026 to cope with tariffs [1] - Gapen notes that tariffs have significantly raised non-labor costs over the past two quarters, leading companies to initially reduce hiring and experience profit declines [1] Group 2: Inflation and Pricing Strategies - Companies have begun to pass on more costs to consumers, with unit price increases surpassing non-labor costs, aiding in the recovery of profitability [1] - If the strategy of price increases is successful, inflation is expected to rise, but layoffs may be avoided [1] - The firm maintains that tariffs can be absorbed by exporters, U.S. businesses, or consumers [1] Group 3: Consumer Price Impact - Gapen indicates that if the government halts further tariff policies, the impact of tariffs on final consumer prices is largely complete [2] - The firm anticipates core inflation rates could reach 3% by early 2026 due to existing tariffs, with noticeable increases in consumer price inflation from June to September [2] - There is a limit to consumers' ability to absorb price increases, especially amid high economic uncertainty, raising concerns about the threshold at which consumers may resist price hikes [2] Group 4: Labor Market Implications - If companies find they cannot raise product prices due to consumer resistance and loss of market share, they may resort to further reducing labor costs, potentially leading to layoffs [2]