“没有通胀的繁荣”？美财长顾问预计明年GDP将超3%，美联储理应降息

Economic Outlook - The Trump administration projects the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 3%, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can continue to lower interest rates in this environment [2][7] - Joe Lavorgna, an advisor to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, indicates that the current economic growth is driven by deregulation and growth policies, alongside a boost in capital spending, resulting in a non-inflationary prosperity [2][7] Federal Reserve Policy - Lavorgna emphasizes that if the economy continues to grow at 3% next year, it would lead to lower inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further [2][4] - Trump expresses a desire for the next Federal Reserve chair to lower rates if the economy performs well, criticizing the current market reaction to good news due to fears of immediate rate hikes [3][8] Investment Trends - Despite strong overall GDP growth in Q3, business investment growth has slowed to 2.8%, and equipment investment growth has decreased to 5.4%, with non-residential structural investment contracting at a rate of 6.3% [9] - Lavorgna attributes the weakness in structural investment to the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, suggesting that lower rates could lead to more factory construction and higher-paying jobs [4][10] AI and GDP Impact - Lavorgna argues that the impact of AI on GDP data is overestimated, as much of the spending is B2B and does not contribute to GDP [5][10] - He forecasts that Q4 growth could reach 3%, which would bring the annual growth rate slightly below 3%, indicating a strong economic performance [5][10]