海通期货：白银关注中期配置机会

Group 1 - The core factors driving the significant increase in silver prices this year include a persistent supply gap in the global silver market, concerns over physical supply due to U.S. tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle which enhances market liquidity and risk appetite [1] - In late December, silver prices accelerated due to a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory, with global silver ETF holdings significantly increasing since October as institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchased and hoarded physical silver [1] - The current market structure shows backwardation in silver futures, indicating extreme tightness in near-term physical supply, with silver lease rates remaining high, reflecting low willingness to lend physical silver [1] Group 2 - In the short term, the silver market is expected to remain highly volatile due to increased delivery demand for COMEX silver futures and tight physical supply, which supports futures prices and amplifies market fluctuations [2] - The anticipated rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in early next year may lead to selling pressure from passive management funds, with silver expected to be more affected than gold due to its smaller market size [2] Group 3 - In the medium term, silver prices are anchored by gold, with the overall upward trend in precious metals likely to continue amid a global rate-cutting cycle and rising geopolitical tensions [3] - Long-term demand for silver is supported by industrial applications, particularly in solar energy, electric vehicles, AI servers, and 5G communications, with silver demand from the solar industry rising from approximately 20% in 2022 to about 55% currently [3] - Traders are advised to consider silver as an enhanced allocation during gold's upward cycle, leveraging its high price elasticity and volatility for excess returns while managing positions to avoid forced exits due to short-term fluctuations [3]