方正证券:储能海内外共振带来需求高景气 光伏反内卷推进利好供给变革
Founder SecuritiesFounder Securities(SH:601901) 智通财经网·2025-12-25 02:04

Group 1: Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage demand is continuously being released, with record-high bidding scale; from January to September 2025, the new energy storage installation capacity reached 81.96 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 61.59% [2] - The cumulative bidding scale for energy storage systems and EPC from January to October this year reached 364.19 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with independent storage accounting for 58% [2] - In the overseas market, the demand for energy storage is driven by the AIDC in the US, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 85% from 2025 to 2030; Europe is expected to see new energy storage installations reach 118 GWh by 2029, with large storage accounting for 69% [2] Group 2: Photovoltaics - The "anti-involution" policy has improved supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a rebound in prices; from the price low in early July to December 11, the cumulative price increases for polysilicon, N-type silicon wafers, TOPCon battery cells, and TOPCon modules were 49%, 40%, 22%, and 2% respectively [3] - BC batteries are expected to achieve mass production by 2026, with significant investments from leading companies; by the end of 2025, domestic BC battery component capacity is expected to exceed 70 GW, with a continuous increase in market share [3] - Perovskite solar cell technology is making breakthroughs, with Longi Green Energy achieving a world record efficiency of 34.85% for silicon-perovskite tandem cells; the industry is transitioning from "technology validation" to "initial mass production" [3] Group 3: Space Photovoltaics - The deployment of space data centers is accelerating, presenting a promising future for space photovoltaics; current mainstream technology is gallium arsenide batteries, but high costs and rigid substrates limit large-scale application [4] - Future mainstream solutions may include P-type HJT batteries and perovskite batteries [4]