国金证券：国内HNB行业开启或已是大势所趋 重视相关供应链布局机遇

Core Viewpoint - The development of new tobacco products, particularly heated not burned (HNB) tobacco, is an inevitable trend in the industry, with potential for high-quality growth in the domestic tobacco system as it aligns with global trends [1] Group 1: Global Tobacco Market Trends - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market volume decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [2] - Major international tobacco companies are shifting focus to new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with Philip Morris International aiming for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030, and British American Tobacco targeting 50% by 2035 [2] Group 2: Domestic Tobacco Market Dynamics - The growth of traditional cigarette consumption in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 0.84%, while sales grew from 23,631 billion sticks to 24,507 billion sticks, with a CAGR of 0.73% [4] - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to 439.4 billion yuan in 2024, indicating high stock levels and increasing difficulty in growth [4] Group 3: HNB Tobacco Development and Regulation - The penetration rate of heated tobacco in Japan has rapidly increased since 2019, with market volume growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to an estimated 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 11.59% [3] - The regulatory framework for HNB products in major markets like the US, Japan, and Europe is well-defined, providing a potential reference for domestic regulation in China [5] Group 4: Domestic HNB Product Development - Domestic tobacco companies have made significant progress in HNB product development since 2017, with multiple companies launching HNB devices and pods targeting Southeast Asian markets, and over 50 patents in the field of heated tobacco technology [6] - The current product offerings and technological advancements in the HNB sector provide a solid foundation for the development of the domestic HNB industry [6]