STARTRADER：英镑年内上涨超8%突破1.35，为何在央行降息时走强？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the British pound continues to strengthen against the US dollar, supported by the Bank of England's cautious monetary policy and a weakening dollar index [2][3]. - The British pound has risen over 8% this year, outperforming most non-dollar currencies, with a recent high of 1.3510 [2]. - The Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year to 3.75% reflects internal divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee regarding inflation and future rate cuts [3]. Group 2 - The UK inflation rate has decreased to 3.2% in November, the lowest in eight months, providing room for rate cuts without triggering excessive easing expectations [3]. - The economic outlook for the UK remains cautious, with GDP growth expectations downgraded to stagnation, but the impact on the pound is mitigated by relative weaknesses in the US economy [3]. - The weakening US dollar, driven by Federal Reserve policy divergence and poor economic data, has further propelled the pound's strength, with the dollar index hitting a two-month low [4]. Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that if the pound stabilizes above 1.35, it may further test resistance levels, shifting the medium-term trend to a bullish outlook [4]. - Short-term risks include potential volatility due to reduced liquidity during the holiday season and the possibility of a rebound in the dollar if US economic data surprises positively [4]. - Future movements of the pound against the dollar will depend on UK inflation and economic recovery data, as well as US Federal Reserve policy and economic performance [4].