破“7”渐近，人民币中间价今日调升79个基点

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar index and increased demand for currency exchange by enterprises as the year-end approaches, which may enhance the attractiveness of China's capital markets to foreign investors [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - On December 25, the People's Bank of China announced that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.0392, a significant increase of 79 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate had already risen by 52 basis points on December 24, marking the highest appreciation since September 30, 2024 [1]. - The offshore RMB hit a low of 7.0032 against the US dollar, while the onshore RMB also fell to 7.0133, indicating a strong upward trend towards the "7.0" threshold [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The RMB's strength in December is primarily driven by two factors: the weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below 100 due to market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, and increased seasonal demand for currency exchange from enterprises as the year-end approaches [1][3]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB has also boosted market sentiment, further pushing up the RMB's value [1]. Group 3: Implications for Trade and Investment - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to increase foreign exchange gains for foreign investors, thereby enhancing confidence in the domestic capital market [3]. - For foreign trade enterprises, the recent RMB appreciation may reduce exchange profits for exporters while lowering costs for importers [3]. - Experts advise foreign trade companies to avoid betting on a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend and to utilize foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks effectively [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Outlook and Future Expectations - The financial regulatory authorities have maintained a clear stance on stabilizing the exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of keeping the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [3][4]. - The market anticipates that the RMB may continue to approach the 7.0 threshold in the short term, with a possibility of temporarily breaking below it, but a sustained one-sided appreciation is not expected in the medium to long term [3][4].