TMGM外汇：加元近期为何走强？美加央行利率政策成关键

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) has recently appreciated slightly against the US dollar (USD), trading around 1.3675, which is near its lowest level since July 25, amid a quiet market environment during the holiday season [1] - Canada's GDP contracted by 0.3% in October, reversing the previous month's growth of 0.2%, aligning with market expectations. In contrast, the US GDP for Q3 showed an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing the prior estimate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.3% [3] - The divergence in economic data between Canada and the US has not provided significant directional guidance for the CAD/USD exchange rate [3] Group 2 - The core support for the CAD exchange rate stems from the differing interest rate adjustment paths of the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The BoC maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% during the December meeting, signaling the end of its rate-cutting cycle after a total reduction of 100 basis points this year [3] - The latest meeting minutes from the BoC indicate that while members agree on the appropriateness of the current rate, there is uncertainty regarding the timing and direction of future adjustments. The baseline scenario suggests that the BoC may maintain the current rate for most of next year, with a potential rate hike in the second half of 2026 [3] - The Fed's interest rate adjustment path has been more gradual, with a total reduction of 75 basis points this year. Market expectations indicate a likelihood of further easing next year, although there are internal disagreements among policymakers regarding inflation and labor market conditions [3] - The market generally anticipates that the Fed will keep rates stable in January, with a mere 13% probability of a rate cut, while two rate cuts are expected later this year [3][4] Group 3 - The ongoing differences in the interest rate adjustment rhythms of the two central banks continue to support the CAD exchange rate. In the short term, the CAD/USD exchange rate is likely to remain within its current low range due to light market trading [4] - In the medium to long term, the policy directions of both central banks and changes in economic data will continue to dominate exchange rate movements, necessitating close attention to policy signals and core economic indicators [4]