全球甲醇市场进入全新发展阶段

Group 1 - The core factor behind the recent decline in methanol prices is the deepening structural oversupply, marking a shift from traditional demand-driven growth to a new market logic dominated by resource competition and inventory dynamics [2][4] - The global methanol supply landscape has transformed into a "tripod" structure, with China, the Middle East (led by Iran), and the United States as the three main players, each influencing trade flows and pricing benchmarks [3][4] - China's domestic market is characterized by rising supply driven by high operational rates of coal-based methanol production, supported by low coal prices, which has led to a historical high in production rates and consequently suppressed prices [5][8] Group 2 - By 2026, the domestic methanol supply structure will exhibit significant differentiation, with new capacity primarily coming from green methanol and traditional production, but actual market impact may be limited due to integration with downstream facilities [8][9] - The overseas methanol market is shifting towards a phase dominated by inventory dynamics and geopolitical risks, with a notable slowdown in supply growth and a focus on the operational efficiency of existing facilities [11][13] - The global methanol market is characterized by a "dual structure," where production in overseas markets relies heavily on natural gas, while China's coal-based production creates a unique cost structure, making China's supply elasticity and cost logic largely independent of international markets [14][15]