Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-12-25 03:54Core Viewpoint - The domestic chain pharmacy industry is entering a period of negative growth, with a significant reduction in the number of pharmacies and a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on value enhancement and health services [2][3][11] Industry Overview - By Q1 2025, the total number of pharmacies in China is expected to fall below 700,000, with a net decrease of approximately 3,000 stores in a single quarter, indicating a widespread "store closure wave" [2] - The overall market size for pharmaceuticals is projected to reach 2.03 trillion yuan in 2024, but the growth rate is only 0.9%, with a forecasted decline to 1.97 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] Company Performance - Major chain pharmacies are experiencing divergent performance: Dazhenglin reported a net profit of 1.081 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 25.97% year-on-year; Yifeng Pharmacy's net profit reached 1.225 billion yuan, a 10.27% increase; while Yixintang faced a decline with a net profit of 269 million yuan, down 8.17% [2] Store Closure Trends - Predictions indicate that the number of pharmacy closures in 2025 could reach between 50,000 and 100,000, marking a shift from the previous era of aggressive expansion to a focus on operational efficiency [3][4] - The industry is expected to return to a more reasonable scale of around 500,000 pharmacies, similar to levels seen in 2018 [4] Market Dynamics - The closure wave is driven by oversupply and increased regulatory pressures, with a significant rise in the proportion of non-pharmaceutical sales, which reached 34.6% in 2025, up 5.2 percentage points from 2024 [5] - The market share of the top ten pharmacy brands increased to 58% in Q3 2025, reflecting a growing concentration in the industry as smaller players exit [5] Business Model Evolution - The franchise model is becoming a key strategy for leading pharmacy chains to expand market share, with significant increases in franchise store openings reported [6] - The industry is transitioning from a focus on selling drugs to providing health services, with a notable shift towards a "sell health" approach [6][7] Professionalization and Service Enhancement - Professionalization is identified as a core development direction, with leading companies adopting innovative drug and DTP pharmacy models to enhance service delivery [7] - Community pharmacies are increasingly focusing on chronic disease management, with a significant percentage of patients expressing a desire for medication guidance and health management services [8] Diversification and Digital Transformation - Leading pharmacies are diversifying their offerings to include health-related products and services, transforming into comprehensive health experience hubs [9] - The integration of online and offline channels is accelerating, with significant growth in new retail segments and contributions from O2O channels [9] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, industry experts believe that the long-term trend for the chain pharmacy sector remains positive, driven by supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [10] - The future of pharmacies is expected to focus on building a diversified health service ecosystem, aligning with national health strategies and enhancing both social and economic benefits [10][11]