日本央行重启加息 日元汇率和股市走势分化

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike indicates a resumption of its tightening measures in response to rising inflation pressures, but the effectiveness of this move in stabilizing the yen and supporting the stock market remains uncertain [1][2]. Economic Context - The yen's depreciation reflects market concerns over Japan's structural economic issues, with a combination of monetary tightening and fiscal expansion contributing to inflationary pressures [1][2]. - Japan's inflation rate is projected to exceed the central bank's 2% target for the fourth consecutive year by 2025, driven by rising material costs and wage increases [2][3]. - The government has implemented significant foreign exchange interventions, totaling over 24.5 trillion yen since 2022, to combat inflation [2]. Debt Sustainability Concerns - Japan's government debt is expected to surpass 1,450 trillion yen by the end of the year, representing 229% of GDP, raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability [3]. - The fiscal budget for FY2025 has reached a record high of 18.3 trillion yen, with projections indicating that the FY2026 budget may exceed 120 trillion yen [3]. Stock Market Dynamics - The Japanese stock market has shown resilience following the interest rate hike, with the Nikkei 225 index rebounding [4]. - Factors supporting the stock market include improved corporate earnings, structural reforms, and foreign capital inflows, particularly from U.S. investors [4][5]. - However, potential risks are accumulating, including the Bank of Japan's shift from net buying to net selling of ETFs, which could impact market stability [5][7]. Future Outlook - The tightening monetary policy may ultimately affect corporate profitability and the overall economic environment, with rising interest rates posing challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises [3][4]. - The divergence between the yen's depreciation and the stock market's performance highlights the complex interplay of structural issues and short-term positive factors in Japan's economy [7].