2026年人民币走势预测与展望

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate exhibited a "weak first, strong later, and narrowing fluctuations" trajectory, with the offshore RMB successfully breaking the 7 key level by year-end, laying a strong foundation for 2026 [2][3] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The RMB/USD exchange rate can be divided into three phases: a weak phase from early January to early April, a rapid appreciation phase from early April to early July, and a moderate appreciation phase from July to year-end. The year started with an exchange rate of 7.27, hitting a low of 7.42879 in April, a depreciation of over 2.18% [3] - From April to July, the RMB appreciated over 2.58%, rising from around 7.35 to 7.16 due to clearer Fed rate cuts and improved US-China trade negotiations [3] - By December 24, the offshore RMB surpassed 7.01, resulting in an overall appreciation of over 4% for the year, while the onshore RMB depreciated by 3.83% [3] Exchange Rate Characteristics - In 2025, the RMB showed a "strong against the USD, weak against a basket of currencies" characteristic, with the CFETS RMB index down 4.1% and the RMB depreciating against the euro by 8.5% and the Mexican peso by 10.5% [4] - The market structure improved, with a shift from a deficit of $39.243 billion in January to a surplus of $51.758 billion by September, indicating a positive cycle of expectations, capital inflow, and exchange rate appreciation [4] Core Driving Logic - The RMB's appreciation in 2025 was driven by both external and internal factors, with the Fed's monetary policy shift being the most critical variable. Since September 2025, the Fed has cut rates by 0.75 percentage points, contributing to a structural weakening of the USD [5] - Internally, China's economic resilience, capital inflows, and policy support formed a threefold force, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a stable trade surplus providing a solid foundation for the RMB [6] Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors, particularly pre-Spring Festival capital settlement behaviors, significantly contributed to the RMB's year-end appreciation, with December typically seeing the highest levels of bank settlement surplus [7] 2026 Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a "moderate appreciation" trend in 2026, with a predicted range of 6.7 to 7.2 against the USD. Various institutions forecast the year-end exchange rate to be between 6.7 and 7.0 [8][9] - Three potential scenarios for 2026 include a baseline scenario of gradual appreciation, an optimistic scenario with significant appreciation due to strong domestic recovery, and a pessimistic scenario where the RMB faces downward pressure due to economic challenges [9] Impact on Economy and Capital Markets - The anticipated RMB appreciation will lower import costs and improve corporate profitability, particularly benefiting industries reliant on imports [11] - Conversely, export-oriented companies may face profit pressures due to exchange rate fluctuations, necessitating effective risk management strategies [11] - The RMB's appreciation is expected to attract foreign capital, with historical data showing a positive correlation between exchange rate increases and foreign investment inflows [12] Policy Implications - The central bank's approach will balance "stabilizing the exchange rate" and "promoting openness," emphasizing market-driven exchange rate formation while supporting RMB internationalization [14] - The ongoing reforms and policy measures aim to enhance the RMB's global standing and stabilize its exchange rate, creating a favorable environment for high-quality economic development [14]