户用光伏第一大省 敲响警钟！
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-25 05:40

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the distributed photovoltaic (PV) market in Shandong, China, particularly the decision to exclude non-natural person household distributed PV projects from the mechanism price bidding starting in 2027, which may lead to substantial market impacts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From 2020 to 2023, the share of newly installed household PV capacity has consistently exceeded 20%, establishing a three-way market division among household, commercial, and centralized PV sectors [1]. - As of September 2023, Shandong has a cumulative installed PV capacity of 91.728 million kilowatts, maintaining its position as the leading province in China for over seven years, with distributed PV accounting for 59.78 million kilowatts [1]. - The mechanism price bidding for renewable energy projects is being promoted across provinces, with Shandong taking the lead in policy changes [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The exclusion of non-natural person household distributed PV projects from the mechanism price bidding is seen as a response to the influx of capital that deviates from the original intent of distributed PV, which is to promote local consumption [2]. - The current mechanism price system is viewed as a transitional policy, with the future direction aimed at a unified national electricity market that emphasizes the core attributes of electricity generation [2][4]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The article suggests that rather than avoiding the Shandong market, stakeholders should leverage it as a "testing ground" to explore viable market-oriented business models, such as energy storage integration and virtual power plants [3]. - The recent changes in time-of-use pricing policies are expected to create challenges for distributed PV while benefiting commercial energy storage, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][4]. - The cancellation of time-of-use pricing does not imply a uniform electricity price but rather a market-driven price formation, which will necessitate a restructuring of energy storage business models [4].