强冲击之下，2025年这个万亿市场是至暗时刻，更是涅槃重生

Core Viewpoint - The consumer finance industry is undergoing significant changes due to new regulations, leading to a compression of profit margins. This situation raises the question of whether the industry is entering a "darkest hour" or if it is a necessary purification and return to value [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Changes and Regulations - The implementation of the "Commercial Banks Internet Lending Business Management Measures" on October 1 requires banks to include all guarantee service fees in the comprehensive financing cost, capping the annual interest rate at 24% [3]. - This new regulation disrupts the existing profit logic of many consumer finance institutions, which relied on high-interest rates to cover risks and operational costs [3][4]. - The cost structure for consumer finance institutions is estimated to include funding costs of approximately 3%-5%, traffic costs of 4%-5%, risk costs of 7%-9%, and operational costs of 4%-6% [3]. Group 2: Industry Response and Adaptation - Amidst collective anxiety, some institutions are positively responding by shedding high-risk and non-compliant businesses, while others are forming localized service ecosystems through partnerships with local banks and consumption scenarios [4]. - The industry is experiencing a wave of layoffs, salary reductions, and business contractions as institutions adapt to the new regulatory environment [3][4]. - The long-term survival of the industry will depend on institutions that proactively adapt and adhere to the essence of financial services [2][5]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The consumer finance industry has evolved over the past decade from disorder to order, with significant regulatory guidance leading to the elimination of non-compliant entities [5][6]. - The industry has seen explosive growth since around 2015, driven by a combination of consumer upgrading and internet trends, but has also faced challenges such as P2P platform expansion and compliance issues [6][7]. - The next decade will focus on the integration of "self-operated + technology" as a core strategy for institutions to thrive in a low-interest environment [10][11]. Group 4: Technological Integration and Competitive Landscape - The combination of self-operated capabilities and technology is essential for addressing challenges such as high costs and risk management in the consumer finance sector [11][12]. - Institutions that have invested in technology and built self-operated customer bases are better positioned to navigate economic cycles and regulatory pressures [11][12]. - The competition in the next decade will shift from scale and interest margin to the comprehensive capabilities of "self-operated + technology," with those lacking in these areas likely to be eliminated from the market [12].