安联投资：预期黄金的策略性价值将持续至2026年及以后 短期市场调整或可带来入市良机

Core Viewpoint - Gold is experiencing a strong resurgence in investment portfolios due to structural changes in the market, including central bank demand, fiscal concerns, and de-dollarization, which are expected to continue influencing its strategic value through 2026 and beyond [1][10]. Group 1: Structural Changes Driving Gold Prices - The announcement of new import tariffs by Trump in April 2025 accelerated the rise in gold prices, marking a significant phase in the gold market's development [2]. - Central banks are diversifying their currency holdings in response to geopolitical tensions, contributing to the increase in gold prices [2]. - By mid-October 2025, gold prices had surged over 50%, with only a recent short-term technical adjustment observed [3]. Group 2: Traditional Factors Supporting Gold - Traditional factors such as a weakening dollar, declining real yields, and retail investor purchases have re-emerged to support gold's upward momentum [4]. - These factors, combined with structural changes, reinforce gold's position as a strategic reserve asset in a fragmented monetary system [4]. Group 3: Strategic Role of Gold in Investment Portfolios - Gold's role in investment portfolios is evolving from a safe-haven asset to a strategic asset, providing a solid foundation amid rising fiscal and geopolitical risks [6]. - Gold's low correlation with stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds makes it an effective risk diversification tool in multi-asset portfolios [6][7]. - The intrinsic value of gold remains stable despite inflation or rising debt levels, distinguishing it from nominal yield-dependent assets like Treasury bonds [6]. Group 4: Recommendations for Gold Allocation - There is a necessity to increase gold allocation in multi-asset portfolios, as some fund managers currently hold only single-digit percentages of gold [8]. - The firm has raised the proportion of gold in certain fund strategies, viewing it as a more effective hedge against extreme uncertainty compared to traditional safe-haven assets [8]. Group 5: Investment Potential in Gold and Silver Mining Stocks - The firm sees short-term strategic investment potential in gold and silver mining stocks, which are more closely correlated with metal prices and currently have attractive valuations [9]. - Silver has also benefited from strong industrial and investment demand, rising over 60% in the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. Group 6: Future Outlook for Gold - The strategic importance of gold is expected to continue rising through 2026 and beyond, driven by persistent fiscal imbalances, de-dollarization, and geopolitical fragmentation [10]. - Recent strong demand from investors and central banks indicates that any short-term technical adjustments in gold prices should be viewed as opportunities rather than market reversals [10].