Counterpoint：预计2030年全球生成式AI消费支出将达到6990亿美元

Core Insights - Consumer spending in generative AI is rapidly reshaping the global tech industry, with projections indicating an increase from $225 billion in 2023 to $699 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [1] Group 1: Market Growth - The report highlights that both consumer-facing AI software and the hardware required for its operation will experience significant growth in the coming years [1] - The AI dialogue platform is identified as the fastest-growing segment, with personal assistant AI and content generation tools also expected to expand significantly [1] - By 2030, the number of monthly active users (MAUs) for global AI dialogue platforms is projected to exceed 5 billion [1] Group 2: Hardware and Software Dynamics - AI hardware will continue to dominate overall consumer spending, driven by the integration of AI functionalities in personal devices [4] - From 2023 to 2030, global shipments of generative AI smartphones are expected to grow at a CAGR of 26%, with corresponding revenue growth at 16% [4] - The consumer AI software market is anticipated to show even greater growth potential, primarily due to a significant increase in user base [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape at the platform level indicates that while OpenAI is expected to maintain a leading user base, Google and Microsoft are projected to experience the most significant growth in monthly active users during the forecast period [4] - Beyond AI dialogue platforms, other AI application markets, including AI art generation tools, companion applications, and photo editing software, also exhibit strong growth momentum [4] Group 4: Market Evolution - Generative AI is evolving from a "high-end differentiated feature" to a "mainstream market standard" [5] - Although high-end smartphones will remain the primary revenue driver until 2030, growth in shipments is increasingly being driven by mid-range devices, indicating a trend towards broader AI capability adoption [5] - Emerging forms such as laptops, XR devices, and AI-native terminals, while currently limited in scale, are expected to become important growth areas, pushing the AI hardware ecosystem towards greater diversification beyond smartphones [5]