Counterpoint Research：全球智能手表出货量预计将在2025年年底同比增长7%

Core Insights - Global smartwatch shipments are expected to grow by 7% year-on-year by the end of 2025, following a decline in 2024, driven by new hardware and software features, increased consumer preference for mid-to-high-end smartwatches, and a growing focus on health-related functionalities [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China is identified as the key growth engine for the global smartwatch market, with three out of the top five brands originating from the country. Government subsidy policies are facilitating device upgrades, while brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Xiaotiancai are enhancing user engagement through differentiated product strategies [1] - The market share of China is projected to increase from 25% in 2024 to approximately 31% in 2025, supported by rising household incomes and the widespread adoption of local brands [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Apple's latest smartwatch generation achieved a 12% year-on-year increase in shipments during its launch quarter, with a similar growth forecast for the entire year of 2025. This rebound is attributed to the launch of the cost-effective Watch SE 3 and the premium Watch Ultra 3, which broaden Apple's coverage across different price segments [4] - The introduction of new health features, including 5G support, satellite communication, and hypertension alerts, has contributed to Apple's recovery after seven consecutive quarters of year-on-year declines [4] Group 3: Future Trends - The smartwatch industry in 2025 is expected to be characterized by a wave of function-driven innovations that fundamentally enhance device performance. Key upgrades include AI integration, 5G support, satellite communication, and MicroLED display technology [4] - Even lower-priced models are beginning to offer AI-driven experiences and upgraded health sensors, aiming to re-engage users who previously shifted away from basic smartwatches. This renewed focus on functional upgrades and user value is anticipated to create positive feedback loops, driving market growth in 2025 [4]