Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-25 06:46Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases driven by rising demand, particularly from AI applications, and supply-side capacity shortages [2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Semiconductor companies such as SMIC and GlobalFoundries have issued price increase notices to downstream customers, primarily focusing on the 8-inch BCD process platform with an increase of around 10% [3]. - The NAND price index has surged by 173% and the DRAM price index by 169% since the end of July, with expectations of further increases in DDR5 RDIMM prices by over 40% and eSSD prices by 20-30% in Q1 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Growth - According to SEMI, global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to reach $133 billion in 2025, marking a 13.7% year-on-year increase, with continued growth expected in the following years, reaching $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027 [4]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks an index where nearly 60% is composed of equipment, and over 90% is focused on the upstream sectors of the semiconductor industry, indicating significant potential for domestic substitution [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment ETF has a strong focus on leading companies such as Zhongwei Company, North Huachuang, and Cambrian, with the top ten holdings accounting for nearly 80% of the index, showcasing high elasticity characteristics [7]. - As of December 24, the index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 65%, outperforming other mainstream semiconductor indices, suggesting it may have greater resilience in the upcoming semiconductor upcycle [7].