邓正红能源软实力：地缘软实力博弈 供应过剩硬实力压制 油价处于盘整阶段

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking clear direction due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of oversupply, leading to slight declines in international oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 24, international oil prices showed minor declines, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $58.35 per barrel, down 0.05%, and Brent crude at $62.24 per barrel, down 0.22% [1]. - The market is weighing two main factors: escalating geopolitical tensions and widespread expectations of global supply surplus [1][2]. - API data indicates a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.39 million barrels for the week ending December 19, with gasoline inventories up by 1.09 million barrels and distillate inventories up by 685,000 barrels [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. has initiated a blockade on Venezuelan oil, which is reshaping global energy trade dynamics and creating a "soft power" inventory situation for Venezuela, where oil is being stored offshore due to export challenges [2][3]. - The blockade and sanctions have not reduced global oil supply but may create delays that could support oil prices to some extent [2][3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The oversupply situation is characterized by rising U.S. oil inventories and difficulties in selling West African crude, indicating weak global demand [3]. - The current market is experiencing a "soft-hard power asymmetrical oscillation," where geopolitical tensions represent power struggles while oversupply reflects material imbalances [3]. Group 4: Market Characteristics and Future Outlook - The consolidation phase is marked by price fluctuations around the $60 per barrel mark for Brent crude, reflecting a tug-of-war between soft and hard power influences [4]. - Market reactions to geopolitical events have become muted, while sensitivity to inventory data has increased [4]. - The consolidation period is expected to last 2-3 months, with potential breakthroughs dependent on signals of rule restructuring and demand recovery from major economies like China and the U.S. [4].