专访中金刘刚：2026年投资需均衡配置，宜跟随信用扩张的方向

Core Viewpoint - Investors are facing a complex situation as the global economic cycle approaches a critical turning point by the end of 2025, with strong long-term growth potential from AI but high valuations and expectations, while traditional economic sectors show weak credit expansion and overall return pressure [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 should shift from "single-sided bets" to "balanced allocation," embracing certain growth directions like AI hardware while retaining high-dividend assets as a hedge [2][5] Scarce Assets Redefined - The core characteristic of the 2026 market environment will be excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with the ability of these assets to expand being a key variable [5][6] AI Hardware Focus - AI-related assets, particularly in the hardware sector supported by government policies, remain a clear investment direction despite high short-term expectations and valuations [6][9] High Dividend Assets - High-dividend assets are crucial hedging tools in an environment of credit contraction, providing stable returns when overall credit is under pressure [7] Strong Cyclical Sectors - Strong cyclical sectors may benefit from U.S. fiscal expansion and monetary easing, potentially boosting demand for commodities like copper, aluminum, and machinery [7] Hong Kong Stock Market Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market, driven by both mainland and overseas liquidity, presents structural opportunities, with a predicted divergence in the flow of southbound funds [8] Fund Flow Dynamics - Long-term allocation funds, such as insurance capital, are expected to steadily increase holdings in high-dividend assets, while trading funds may fluctuate based on A-share market activity [8] Portfolio Recommendations - A balanced portfolio is recommended, with 10% to 20% of funds allocated to high-dividend assets, adaptable based on individual risk preferences [8] Industry Selection - The Hong Kong market's structural advantages remain prominent, with high dividends being a core attraction, while AI hardware benefits from policy support [9]