跃过4000点，A股“慢牛”何处去｜2025中国经济年报

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new bull market in 2025, driven by technological breakthroughs, industry dynamics, institutional reforms, capital inflows, and improved risk appetite, marking it as a "technology revaluation bull" [2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4000 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, with a total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [2] - By December 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index had increased by 17.6% for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 29.5%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 50.8% [4] Key Drivers of the Bull Market - The bull market is supported by three main factors: continuous policy support for the capital market, accelerated transfer of household savings to the capital market, and the diminishing role of real estate as a wealth reservoir [5] - The emergence of DeepSeek's open-source inference model has significantly boosted the domestic AI sector, igniting market enthusiasm and leading to a shift from narrative-driven to industry-driven market dynamics [3][4] Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism for 2026, predicting a potential transition from a structural bull market to a broader market rally, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's current P/E ratio around 14 times, still below historical averages [2][7] - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, supported by stable macroeconomic policies, ongoing industrial transformation, and continuous capital inflows [8][9] Historical Context - The A-share market's total trading volume exceeded 400 trillion yuan in 2025, compared to 255.8 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating robust market activity [5] - The market's performance reflects a significant shift in China's economic structure, with a growing emphasis on high-value service industries and technology sectors [6]