黄金白银价格预测：更高低点形态维持，市场重新评估2026年美联储降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The strong 4.3% growth in the US GDP has tempered upward momentum, while weak consumer confidence keeps risk sentiment cautious [1][8][9] Market Overview - Gold and silver continue to gain momentum in European trading, supported by macroeconomic signals, policy expectations, and increased uncertainty in global market supply [3] - Investors are showing a preference for precious metals as a hedge in their portfolios rather than for short-term trading due to thinning year-end liquidity [4] Supply Risks and Market Caution - Precious metals benefit from heightened risk awareness due to global trade disruptions and energy-related supply issues, prompting investors to allocate funds to gold and silver as traditional value storage assets [5] - Defensive positioning during the holiday trading lull amplifies inflows into gold and silver, enhancing their appeal as macro hedging tools rather than purely speculative assets [6] Monetary Policy Expectations - Expectations for loose monetary policy remain a key driver, with markets increasingly anticipating multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 as inflation trends soften and labor market momentum shows signs of cooling [7] - The likelihood of rate cuts has seen significant changes in recent weeks, reflecting growing confidence that the tightening cycle is coming to an end [7] Economic Data Impact - The robust US economic data partially offsets support for precious metals, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting a 4.3% annualized growth rate for Q3, significantly above expectations [8] - Weak consumer confidence, indicated by a drop in the Consumer Confidence Index to 89.1, suggests potential caution among American households [9] Short-term Price Forecast - Gold is consolidating around $4,492, with support at $4,460 and a target of $4,580, while silver is holding above $72.27, targeting $73.80-$75.30, supported by expectations of rate cuts and reduced holiday liquidity [10] Technical Analysis for Gold - Gold is trading around $4,492, having entered a consolidation phase after a strong upward push, maintaining a bullish trend with higher highs and lows [13] - The price remains above the breakout level of $4,460, which has now turned into initial support, with potential upward movement towards $4,560-$4,600 [14] Technical Outlook for Silver - Silver is trading around $72.27, undergoing consolidation after a significant rise, with the overall trend still firmly bullish [17] - The price remains above the breakout area of $70.65, which is now the first support level, with upward risks towards $73.80 and $75.30 as long as it stays above $70.65 [17]