美股现“圣诞老人行情”再创新高，美国三季度经济结构性分化加剧

Market Performance - Major US stock indices continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new historical closing highs, driven by expectations of a "Santa Claus rally" [2] - As of December 24, the Dow Jones increased by 288.75 points (0.60%) to 48,731.16, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.32% to 6,932.05, marking its second consecutive day of record closing [2] - The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.22% to 23,613.31, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.3%, indicating sustained risk appetite [2] Economic Indicators - The US economy showed strong support from recent data, with Q3 GDP growing at an annualized rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, significantly exceeding market expectations [3] - Consumer spending, export rebounds, and continued investment in equipment and AI were key drivers of this growth, alongside government spending, particularly in defense [3] - However, economists noted a structural divergence in growth, with high-income households driving consumer spending while lower-income families face challenges due to rising living costs [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending growth reached 3.5% in Q3, the fastest in nearly a year, covering various sectors such as leisure, automotive, and healthcare [4] - Recent signs indicate a marginal slowdown in consumer momentum, with retail sales stagnating in October and a decline in automotive purchases for two consecutive months [4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation pressures have resurfaced, with key indicators showing a 3.4% increase in overall price levels in Q3, the fastest since early 2023 [4] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a focus for the Federal Reserve, also saw its year-on-year growth rate rise to 2.8% [4] - Market expectations for significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished in light of resilient economic data and persistent inflation [4] Market Outlook - The market is entering a critical phase at the year's end, with historical trends suggesting a "Santa Claus rally" in the final trading days [4] - However, analysts believe that with indices at high levels and low liquidity, short-term upside potential may be limited, predicting a moderate upward trend rather than a significant surge [4] - The focus is shifting from the speed of growth to the sustainability and balance of growth as the market reassesses economic quality, inflation paths, and policy directions [4]