3 6 Ke·2025-12-25 08:07Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector in China's A-share market has seen a significant surge, with over twenty stocks hitting the daily limit or rising more than 10%, reflecting a nearly 50% increase in the commercial aerospace index this year, with many stocks doubling in price [1][3] - The sector is transitioning from a technology validation phase to a new stage of scale and commercialization, as highlighted in the "China Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Report (2025)" [1] Market Enthusiasm - The commercial aerospace sector has become the most prominent star in the A-share market over the past week, with investments flowing into various segments, including rocket components, satellite testing systems, specialty cables, and key materials [3] Institutional Attitude Shift - There is a notable change in institutional attitudes towards commercial aerospace, which is viewed as a risk investment aligned with national strategic technology reserves. The introduction of the fifth set of listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board allows unprofitable companies with core technologies to go public, accelerating the formation of a capital closed loop [5] Triple Drivers - The growth of the commercial aerospace sector is driven by policy, technology, and market demand. The National Space Administration has issued a development action plan with 22 key measures to support the industry, including the establishment of a national commercial aerospace development fund [7] - Recent successful launches, such as the Long March 12 rocket and Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque-3" rocket, have validated key technologies and marked a shift towards large-scale operations [7] Industry Chain Ecosystem - China has over 600 commercial aerospace companies covering the entire industry chain, from rocket and satellite manufacturing to launch services and terminal applications. Listed companies are actively positioning themselves across this chain [8][9] Market Potential - The market size of China's commercial aerospace sector has grown from approximately 0.38 trillion yuan in 2015 to an estimated 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024, with a projected annual growth rate of about 22%. By 2030, the market could reach between 7 trillion and 10 trillion yuan [10] Future Directions - The commercial aerospace sector faces challenges, including a lack of scalable, high-viscosity commercial applications and the need for optimized regulations regarding frequency resource allocation and launch approvals. However, the establishment of the "Linchuang Commercial Aerospace Alliance Innovation Fund" and improvements in talent training systems are expected to enhance the development environment [11] - The sector is anticipated to experience rapid growth as costs decrease and launch capabilities improve, with the first batch of commercial aerospace companies expected to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board next year [11]