贵金属的转折点？风浪越大鱼越贵

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with extreme bullish sentiment on one side and sudden declines on the other, indicating a potential turning point for the sector [1][2]. Short-term Disturbances - Investors should be cautious of short-term fluctuations and avoid becoming "bag holders" as the market is currently under pressure from passive fund rebalancing [5][6]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo annual rebalancing from January 8 to 15, leading to a 9% sell-off pressure on silver and 3% on gold, which could disrupt the short-term market [6][8]. - Active funds are likely to preemptively reduce their positions to lock in profits before the rebalancing occurs [7]. Long-term Anchors - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by four key factors [11]. - Central banks have been net buyers of gold for three consecutive years, with purchases expected to reach 1,086 tons in 2024, increasing gold's share in global reserves from 9% to 18.2% [14][16]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices, with three rate cuts anticipated by 2025 [17][18]. - The global debt crisis, particularly in the U.S., has heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with U.S. debt exceeding $36 trillion [22][23]. - Retail investors currently have a low allocation to gold, with U.S. gold ETFs representing only 0.17% of private investment portfolios, indicating significant room for growth [28][30]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment has led to a 40% increase in silver prices within a month, driven by quantitative funds [49][50]. - The company has successfully guided its members from a price of $1,800 to $4,500, demonstrating a strong grasp of market trends [55]. - The long-term outlook for gold is optimistic, with potential targets of $5,000 by 2026 and even $10,000 by 2029, contingent on various economic factors [45][46][40].