稳定币这一年：光环褪去后的监管博弈与生存暗战｜2025中国经济年报

Core Insights - The stablecoin sector has undergone a significant transformation from enthusiasm to rationality in 2025, achieving a record annual trading volume of $46 trillion and a total market capitalization of $300 billion, establishing itself as a crucial bridge between traditional finance and the blockchain world [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Stablecoins achieved a trading volume of $46 trillion in the past year, reflecting a 106% increase compared to the previous year, nearly three times the volume of Visa and close to covering the entire ACH network of the U.S. banking system [2] - The total market capitalization of stablecoins surpassed $300 billion, with over 1% of U.S. dollars existing in tokenized stablecoin form on public blockchains [2] - In September, the adjusted trading volume exceeded $1.25 trillion, marking a historical high [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The maturity of infrastructure, including high-throughput Layer 1 chains like Solana and Layer 2 chains on Ethereum, has significantly reduced transaction costs to less than one cent and settlement times to under one second, overcoming traditional cross-border payment efficiency bottlenecks [2] - Visa announced that U.S. banks can directly conduct settlement operations using USDC stablecoin, disrupting the long-standing T+3 and T+5 settlement cycles in traditional finance [2] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - A global regulatory framework for stablecoins is rapidly taking shape, with the U.S. implementing the GENIUS Act, which mandates a 1:1 peg to the dollar and requires issuers to disclose reserve compositions monthly [6] - The European Union has established the MiCA regulation, the strictest unified regulatory framework covering 27 countries [6] - China has classified stablecoins as a form of virtual currency, deeming related activities illegal due to concerns over anti-money laundering and customer identification [6][7] Group 4: Market Dynamics - 99% of stablecoins are dollar-denominated, with USDT and USDC accounting for 87% of the market share, positioning stablecoins among the top 20 holders of U.S. Treasury securities [5] - Tether, the largest issuer, holds over $120 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, indicating the financial infrastructure attributes of stablecoins [5] Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Despite regulatory clarity, inherent risks persist in the stablecoin market, including high-risk asset exposure and liquidity issues, as highlighted by S&P's downgrade of USDT [8] - The concentration of market share, with Tether holding nearly 70%, poses systemic risks that could lead to significant liquidity freezes [8] - The International Bank for Settlements has warned that stablecoins perform poorly as widely usable currencies due to a lack of central bank backing and insufficient measures against illegal use [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The stablecoin industry is expected to evolve towards compliance, scenario-based applications, and regionalization, with Morgan Stanley predicting a total market capitalization of $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028 [9] - The year 2025 marks a transition for stablecoins, emphasizing the need for financial innovation to align with regulatory frameworks and serve the essential demands of the real economy [9]