百步一药店，奶茶店式圈地崩盘：70万连锁药房在关店潮中抢滩“卖健康”

Core Insights - The domestic chain pharmacy industry is entering a period of negative growth, with the total number of pharmacies in China expected to drop below 700,000 by Q1 2025, marking a significant decline in the number of stores [1][2] - The market is undergoing a profound restructuring, with the total market size for pharmaceuticals reaching 2.03 trillion yuan in 2024, but with a mere 0.9% year-on-year growth, and a forecasted decline to 1.97 trillion yuan in 2025 [1][2] - Major chain pharmacies are experiencing divergent performance, with companies like Dazhonglin and Yifeng Pharmacy reporting profit increases, while Yixin Tang faces profit declines [1][3] Industry Trends - Predictions indicate that the number of pharmacy closures in 2025 could reach between 50,000 and 100,000, as the industry shifts from rapid expansion to a focus on value enhancement [2][3] - The industry is moving towards a "sell health" model, transitioning from traditional pharmaceutical sales to a more comprehensive health service approach [2][6] Market Dynamics - The closure of stores is expected to continue into 2025, with the industry potentially returning to a more sustainable scale of around 500,000 pharmacies, similar to 2018 levels [3] - The overall non-pharmaceutical sales proportion in the industry has reached 34.6% in 2025, up 5.2 percentage points from 2024, indicating a shift towards health-related products and services [4][6] Competitive Landscape - The market concentration is increasing, with the top ten chain pharmacy brands holding a combined market share of 58% in Q3 2025, up 5 percentage points from 2024 [4] - Franchise models are becoming a key strategy for leading chain pharmacies to expand market share, with significant increases in franchise store openings reported [5][6] Transformation Strategies - The core development direction for chain pharmacies in 2025 is professional transformation, with a focus on innovative drugs and DTP pharmacy models [6][9] - The shift towards chronic disease management and health service offerings is becoming increasingly important, with pharmacies enhancing their service capabilities to meet patient needs [7][9] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, industry experts believe that the long-term trend for the chain pharmacy sector remains positive, driven by supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [8][9] - The future of chain pharmacies is expected to revolve around becoming health service providers, integrating pharmaceutical resources with community health needs [9]