Marko Papic万字访谈：委内瑞拉救不了油价，特朗普或在2026年“压榨”美联储，股市迎来“YOLO时刻”

Group 1 - Marko Papic analyzes Trump's recent "no-fly zone" threat against Venezuela, suggesting it is a negotiation tactic rather than a prelude to war, part of Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy [1][4][5] - Venezuela, holding the world's largest oil reserves, is seen as a potential source for the U.S. to alleviate inflation, but Papic warns that this is a short-term fantasy due to severe production capacity losses [1][8][10] - Papic predicts that by 2026, energy market pressures will force significant policy shifts globally, as the U.S. seeks new oil sources amid changing dynamics with Saudi Arabia [1][9][10] Group 2 - Papic defends Kevin Hassett as a serious economic strategist rather than a mere "Trump puppet," emphasizing that his appointment would continue a dovish monetary policy tradition in the U.S. [2][35][39] - The discussion highlights the potential for a political-driven "monetary easing" to support the economy ahead of the midterm elections, which could lead to a volatile stock market environment [1][21][24][29] - Papic suggests that the U.S. may need to relax regulations on domestic oil production to address inflation, but acknowledges that low oil prices are currently stifling production elsewhere [12][16][24] Group 3 - The urgency for the U.S. to secure alternative oil sources is linked to Saudi Arabia's shifting priorities, as they can no longer support U.S. interests indefinitely [9][10][16] - Papic indicates that any agreement with Venezuela to increase oil production would take years to materialize, thus maintaining upward pressure on oil prices in the short term [8][10][11] - The geopolitical landscape, including the potential for a peace agreement in Ukraine, could also influence global oil prices and market dynamics [17][20] Group 4 - Papic emphasizes that the upcoming midterm elections will significantly impact U.S. economic policy, with Trump likely to prioritize measures that stimulate consumer spending [21][24][25] - The potential for a "YOLO" moment in the stock market is discussed, where weakened central bank independence could lead to increased risk-taking among investors [21][30][31] - Papic suggests that investors should consider diversifying into non-dollar-denominated assets as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with U.S. monetary policy changes [33][34]