深度丨4倍LPR降息压力，小贷行业“生死突围”

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of guidelines by the People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Bureau marks a significant policy shift aimed at reducing the comprehensive financing costs in the microloan industry, with a target to lower these costs to within four times the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the end of 2027 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The guidelines require microloan companies to clearly disclose the comprehensive financing costs of loans and to gradually reduce these costs, with new loans exceeding a 24% cost immediately halted [1][3]. - By the end of 2027, all new loans must have a comprehensive financing cost capped at approximately 12%, based on the current one-year LPR of 3% [1][4]. - The guidelines emphasize the need for local financial management institutions to monitor the lending activities of microloan companies closely [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The guidelines are expected to accelerate the "clearing out" of the microloan industry, particularly affecting companies that engage in self-operated and joint lending businesses [2][11]. - The value of microloan licenses is anticipated to decline significantly, leading to a reduction in new business scale for microloan companies [11]. - The guidelines will likely enhance the role of licensed financial institutions, such as banks and consumer finance companies, in providing inclusive financial services [11][12]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The guidelines signal a strong regulatory stance, prohibiting regulatory arbitrage and requiring local financial management institutions to focus on the growth of short-term loans [5][12]. - There is an ongoing effort to strengthen the regulation of local financial organizations, with a goal to phase out non-compliant institutions over the next three years [12][13]. - The number of microloan companies has already decreased significantly, with the latest data showing a reduction to 4,863 companies and a loan balance of 722 billion yuan [13].