TMGM：美元兑瑞郎回落至0.7880附近，触及近三个月低点

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a clear downward trend, with a cumulative decline of over 10% for the year, influenced by differing monetary policies between the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Swiss National Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0% during the December meeting, with inflation expectations for 2026 revised down to 0.3%, indicating strict conditions for reintroducing negative interest rates [4]. - The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% on December 10, marking the third cut since September, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [4]. - The Swiss economy contracted in Q3 due to the pharmaceutical sector, but growth in manufacturing and services provided some buffer, with the SNB projecting economic growth slightly below 1.5% for 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF has broken below the 20-day moving average, indicating weak short-term momentum, with potential support levels at 0.7900 and 0.7830 if the price falls below 0.7915 [5][6]. - The RSI has entered the oversold territory, and the MACD remains in a bearish structure, suggesting continued downward pressure on the exchange rate [6]. - The Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal has been amplified in the current environment, despite the SNB's limited intervention capacity in the foreign exchange market [4]. Group 3: Future Monitoring and Risks - Key areas to monitor include Swiss inflation data and any changes in the SNB's stance, as a drop in inflation expectations could reignite discussions on negative interest rates [8]. - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions and key economic data will be crucial in assessing the future path of monetary easing, alongside the execution of trade agreements and external policy constraints [8].