银行净息差现企稳迹象，普通人理财要换思路了？｜《财经》特别报道

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is strengthening its guidance on deposit and loan interest rates to prevent excessive competition among market institutions, which could further lower effective market rates and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Consumer loan products with interest rates below 3% are nearly extinct, and 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit with rates above 1.55% are also disappearing [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set a lower limit for loan interest rates, with corporate loan rates around 2.1%-2.2% and retail loan rates, including mortgages, at about 3% [3][10]. - The PBOC aims to maintain a reasonable interest rate relationship, emphasizing the importance of the interest rate spread between deposits and loans [4][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - The central bank's focus on interest rate relationships is due to the overall low interest rate levels in China, with the policy rate at 1.4% and new loan rates around 3.1% [7][8]. - The central economic work conference indicated a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for slight rate cuts in 2026 [8][42]. - The PBOC is expected to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission by improving the relationship between various interest rates [38][41]. Group 3: Banking Sector Dynamics - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, declining from over 2% to around 1.42% [15][18]. - Banks are facing challenges due to intense competition, leading to irrational pricing of loans and a significant drop in deposit rates [19][20]. - Recent actions by banks include the removal of long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit and a focus on stabilizing net interest margins [23][14]. Group 4: Currency and Exchange Rate Implications - The PBOC's efforts to stabilize interest rates are also aimed at maintaining the stability of the RMB against the USD, especially in light of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][28]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown signs of strengthening, with expectations that it may break below 7.0 against the USD [25][29]. - The central bank's monetary policy will consider both domestic economic conditions and external influences, particularly from the US [27][31].